High polling percentage in Punjab upsets calculations of politicians

CHANDIGARH: The fresh figures of voting percentage (73.53 percent) of first phase of Lok Sabha election in Punjab, concluded on May 7, has sent shock waves down the spine of senior political leaders. The results of Lok Sabha seats in state may be surprising and stunning.
They are trying to recount their eggs after Election Commission Friday said that average percentage was 73.53 percent and in high profile constituency a record 78.75 percent voters cast their votes.
The Chief Electoral Officer Punjab said that Sangrur constituency has recorded 74.03 percent voting, Ferozepur 71.43 percent and Patiala the lowest 69.87 percent.
The highest voting was recorded in Budhlada-84.34 percent followed by Sardulgarh 83.25 and Lambi 81.41 percent. Lambi is home constituency of Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal. Talwandi sabo has also recorded 80.29 percent polling. In no other constituency poling above 80 percent was recorded. In Bathinda constituency the lowest percentage was recorded in Bathinda urban seat, only 66.52 percent.
The lowest polling was recorded in Abohar in Ferozepur constituency where only 52 percent voters turned out. It was followed by Patiala (Urban), the home constituency of former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh where 61.82 percent voters cast votes.
On four Lok Sabha seats covered in first phase witnessed peaceful polling and interest of voters in the election was against the expectations of anybody. Wa it anti-incumbency factor or popularity of the ruling SAD-BJP alliance is the center of curiosity of political observers. In fact silence of voters this time has prevented political experts to give their analysis on trends.
The interesting part is that both main rivals the SAD and Congress are interpreting the high vote percentage to their advantage. SAD has claimed that people had voted in favour of development and rejected UPA due to its anti-Punjab policies. The Congress has claimed that high polling was due to strong anti-incumbency factor prevailing in the state. Lal Singh Working President of PPCC said that magic of Dr.Manmohan Singh and AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi has worked in Punjab.
The claims of political parties are in fact aimed at the second phase of electioneering to be conducted on May 13 when the remaining nine seats would go to poll.

Future of Punjab politics confined to Bathinda, Patiala seats

CHANDIGARH: The political scene of whole of Punjab seems to have been contained in two Lok Sabha seats of Patiala and Bathinda, the two constituencies from where the prestige of two most powerful political families is at stake.
The families of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh are involved in do or die battle and surprising results are expected from both the seats. May 7, 2009 is the date when both Badal and Amarinder would be praying fo the bright career of their wards. Patiala is home constituency of Amarinder and Badal's have adopted Bathinda after their home constituency Faridkot ws reserved during delimitation.
From Bathinda seat Raninder Singh son of Capt Amarinder Singh is contesting against Harsimrat Kaur daughter in law of Parkash Singh Badal and wife of SAD president and deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal. Captain Amarinder Singh's wife and two time sitting MP Preneet Kaur is engaged in tough contest from patiala seat where she is facing Prem Singh Chandumajra former MP and SAD general secretary. Sukhbir Singh Badal has made it a prestige issue to win the Patiala and Bathinda seats and so is the stake of Capt Amarinder Singh.
The Bathinda Lok Sabha seat was a reserved one till last time. It is now a general seat under the delimitation of seats. Punjab has a total of 13 Lok Sabha seats. Paramjit Kaur Gulshan of Shiromani Akali Dal had represented Batrhinda (reserve) constituency in the last Lok Sabha. It is first time that this constituency has been declared a general constituency after the reorganisation of constituencies in Punjab.
Interestingly,Harsimrat and Raninder Singh are both first timers and highly educated. Raninder was born on August 2,1967 and Harsimrat is born on July 25, 1966, both of them of same age group. They both have wished good luck to each other and promised a healthy contest. Politically, their victory or defeat is linked to the honour of their family elders. Earlier it was expected that Parkash Singh Badal, his wife or Sukhbir Singh Badal would contest the election.
A Bachelor in Science and sharp shooter by training, a political green horn Raninder Singh had participated in world cup. He was appointed general secretary of PPCC in 2006 and is seen political heir of his father. He says,"My aim is to remove unemployment, implementing central schemes and fight against drug menace among youth in Punjab.
Narsimrat Kaur is a novice in politics and her credibility is seen as a social worker. She had a few months back launched an anti-female foeticide campaign called 'Nanhi Chhan' sponsored by Harpal Singh CEO of Max India. She travelled throughout the state to propagate the message of not killing daughters in the womb. Her message was rightly delivered and that is her strong point to stand firm against Congress candidate. She is also a graduate and a known interior decorator. Her future plan is to fight against the evil of dowry.
Both SAD and Congress have drawn their strategies to ensure the victory of candidates contesting from key constituencies. Thouth other seats are also considered important but Patiala and Bathinda has significance of being play ground of royal families.
"I have entered the electoral fray. Now it is for him (husband Sukhbir Badal) to ensure my victory,’ Harsimrat Kaur, told media persons after being named the Akali candidate.
Raninder said that winning Bathinda seat is child's play for him because he had been working on ground for the last over five years. During last assembly elections, he helped Congress to win nine assembly seats under Bathinda Parliament seat. "Harsimrat is like a sister but she has no political vision", Raninder said.

To revert pro-Congress trend of dera votes in Punjab is litmus test for Akalis

While political parties prepare for the final show down in Lok Sabha elections, exactly after two years of assembly elections, the big question being debated in political circles is on the support of big chunk of dera Sacha Sauda followers who voted for Congress in the last two assembly elections in 2002 and 2007.
The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal had suffered big jolts in the last two elections-lost government in 2002 and lost in its strong hold of Malwa in 2007 due to pro-Congress stance of dera followers. Would SAD be able to revert the trend this time ?
The ongoing row between dera followers and members of Sikh community is expected to play crucial factor in Lok Sabha polls. Particularly in Mlawa belt comprising 63 seats out of total of 117, the calculations of political parties may twist the course of voting, if the dera voters continued the past trend.
The Congress in 2007 had suffered humiliating defeat in Doaba and Majha winning three seats in each region but was able to save the face with 36 candidates winning their seats from Malwa. Congress's total tally was 44. It was first time in the history of Punjab that SAD had lost in its strong hold Malwa and also its alliance partner BJP getting record 19 seats out of 23. in urban areas. The Akali Dal-BJP alliance won 68, Akali Dal getting 48 out of 93 contested and BJP 19 out of 23 it contested. Five seats went to independents. Of the 63 seats in the Malwa belt, he Akalis won only 17 seats and the BJP five. In Majha belt, the Akali-BJP alliance won 22 of the 27 seats. The SAD president (Now Chief Minister) Parkash Singh Badal had won his Lambi seat with a meager margin of 9,187 votes.
The dera Chief Baba Gurmit Ram Rahim Singh who is in thick of controversies had formed a political wing in 2002 which decided to openly support Congress party under former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh. It is believed that dera chief embroiled in cases of murder, rape and kidnapping was given an assurance by Congress to help him out from cases registered by CBI. However, when he failed to get the support from center, in 2007 elections he directed his supporters to decide the support at local level and seeing the credentials of candidates. Beside dera factor the step taken by Captain Amarinder Singh to reject all inter-state water accords with Haryana also helped him to garner support from Akali Dal bastion.
The political sources said that certain vested interests were still trying to refresh the dera-Sikh row before Lok Sabha polls to trigger polarisation of voters on communal lines. The reports of clashes between Sikhs and dera folowers have been received from few places in Malwa. The Akal Takht, the highest temporal seat of Sikhs has issued an edict for social and political boycott of dera chief and followers. Akal Takht chief Giani Gurbachan Singh on Thursday also warned the Sikh leaders against seeking support from dera.
The SAD-BJP government has this time decided to contest on the issue of development. It is understood that the issue of development taken up by ruling alliance may not find favour with voters in the background that most of the development is urban oriented. This may help BJP but not the Akalis. The ruling alliance is also unaware of the anti-incumbency factor which seems existing among employees and farmers. In the given situation it would be intersting to watch how SAD play up the dera-Sikh dispute to revert the past trends.

Punjab Congress wasted opportunity to corner SAD on floor of house

The boycott of Punjab Vidhan Sabha session, Punjab Congress Legislative Party(CLP) seems to have lost a good opportunity to take on its rival, ruling alliance of SAD and BJP on the floor of house particularly ahead of Lok Sabha elections.
The CLP has abstained from the house during discussion on Governor'a address, leaving it open for the ruling party to blame Congress for all the ills, Punjab has been facing. SAD-BJP MLA's and leader of the House Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal utilsied the opportunity to project achievements of Punjab government. The Congress MLA's though outside the house condemning the ruling party for bad economy and law and order, but no senior Congress leader was in the house to reply to questions and claims raised by treasury benches. The SAD rather held Congress responsible for running away from debate.
The CLP had announced to boycott the house when Chief Minister made some remarks pointing at behaviour of Congress MLA Sukhpal Singh Khaira who objected strongly. The opposition demanded an apology from Badal but speaker Nirmal Singh Kahlon saved the situatiin playing it mild. He also expunged the remarks from record. Political observers said that it was not so major provocation that prompted Congress for boycott of entire session. The leader of opposition Rajinder Kaur Bhattal was already away to Delhi during the session due to ticket allotment for Lok Sabha elections.
The speaker later also made an appeal to the CLP to return to house but the Congress MLA's also failed to grab that opportunity. The Congress MLA's had given call attention motion on certain important issues including rising road accidents in the state. None of the issues could be taken due to absence of members. The important bills were passed without any debate. Atleast people who had some disillussionment fromn the ruling alliance were expecting from Conmgress to speak for them in the house.
Politically speaking, the Congress lacked in direction in and outside the house. During last two years since the preesent government has taken over, the senior party leaders are engaged in blame game. The Congress has failed to show a united face and this may cost them dearly in the Lok Sabha poll.

Punjab Congress leaders infighting makes PPCC defunct

It is free for all in The Punjab Pardesh Congress Committee(PPCC) which appears to have become a defunct body. The senior party leaders having engaged in mud-slinging against each other, are missing an opportunity to cash in on strong anti-incumbency factor for the coming Lok Sabha poll.
The PPCC is virtually divided into three power centers led by Chairman of party's campaign committee former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, PPCC President Mohinder Singh Kay Pee and CLP leader and former Chief Minister Rajinder Kaur Bhattal. Yet every individual MP and MLA have become an authority in themselves. While PPCC hardly issue any statement on policy matters, certain pro-active MLA's have made it a point to fill the gap with hard hitting statements against the present SAD-BJP government. A Congress MLA was rather issued a breach of previlige notice by the speaker when he on behalf of party leaked the procedings of a Vidhan Sabha Committe. He however apologised later.
The statements issued from different quarters on behalf of PPCC, the confusion prevailed over party's line of action. The party is also not united on launching party's election campaign. It is Amarinder Singh who is calling shots after he decided to go alone for election tour ignoring PPCC directive to postpone his tour.
The PPCC president who is considered a 'gentleman' in Punjab politics seems to have been caught in the clash of two former Chief Ministers Capt Singh and Bhattal who are fighting for supremacy for the last about ten years. Amarinder Singh was made Chief Minister in 2002 ignoring Bhattal's claim. Both of them have now set their eye on next assembly elections. The Congress lost the 2007 assembly poll led by Amarinder Singh. Corruption cases registered against Cap Singhj by present government pushed him to wall for a while.
However, like a phoenix, Amarinder has resurfaced again and went on prowl taking the present government by horns. He has not been joined by Bhattal and Kay Pee though local MLA's are joining the Amarinder's band wagon in a hope that he may re-emerge party leader.
Amarinder Singh has blamed that Bhattal was hand in glove with SAD and not speaking openly against highhandedness of state government. Bhattal on her part says that Amarinder had no respect for party discipline and he is violating PPCC directives. She said that infighting at this stage would only harm the party's prospects in Lok Sabha poll.
Despite opposition Amarinder Singh ahs announced to carry out second phase of election tour from Patiala. He has also announced that if parity allowed, his wife would be candidate from Patiala and his son Raninder Singh would be contesting fro Bathinda Lok Sabha seat. The announcement of certain names for Lok Sabha seats by Amarinder Singh is also irritating the PPCC leaders.

Delhi debacle spoils SAD plan to play larger role in national politics

The defeat of all the four candidates of Shiromani Akali Dal(SAD) in the Delhi assembly elections have come as rude shock to the ruling alliance partner of BJP in Punjab. The alliance partners have to learn many lessons from the 'tilt' of Sikh voters of Delhi.The Delhi debacle of Akalis has cost BJP heavily and would also have bearing on SAD's future strategy to expand its base outside Punjab. SAD was preparing to play larger role in the national politics.
The defeat in Delhi is seen as shrinking of the political base of Akalis outside Punjab. Before Delhi, Akalis had lost their political clout in Rajasthan where BJP has been routed by Congress. The only candidate put up by SAD in Rajasthan in 2003 assembly elections had lost his deposit. It is believed that for this very reason, the SAD backed out from Rajasthan this time and no seat was demanded from BJP in Rajasthan.
SAD was also contemplating to seek share in tickets in assembly elections from INLD-BJP alliance in Haryana. Haryana has significant strength of Sikh community but they are understood have fallen apart from SAD on the issue of forming separate Gurdwara Committee for Haryana state. The Sikhs in Delhi also turned back to Akali Dal's trump card Avtar Singh Hit and instead backed Paramjit Singh Sarna who had extended open support to Congress. He had blamed that Akalis were not serving Sikh community by joining hands with BJP.Only yesterday SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal had predicted landslide victory for BJP and SAD candidates in Delhi.
Badal however next day seemed short of words to cover the defeat of party candidates.Sukhbir Badal in a statement here thanked the voters in Delhi for helping the Party in putting up a tough fight against the Congress. He said that electoral exercise helped the Shiromani Akali Dal in creating and strengthening the base in future.To make the defeat respectable, Badal junior said that this was the first time since the formation of the Shiromani Akali Dal that the Party had contested in Delhi, considering that this was our maiden entry into electoral field in the capital.
We got overwhelming response and came close to winning the seat which we had contested at our own symbol. He said that the electoral exercise has helped the Shiromani Akali Dal in creating a grass root cadre which will help us in our future battles.It may be mentioned that the Akali Dal contested four seats in Delhi in alliance with the BJP, including three on the symbol of the alliance partner. Badal had campaigned day and night in the national capital for the victory of the alliance in general and his party candidates in particular.
Sukhbir Badal on Sunday, a day before counting, had maintained that victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party led alliance in the Delhi Asembly elections would enable his party (SAD)to play a greater role at the national level and this election would be a first step in that direction. In the next step, the Akali Dal would make its presence felt in the Assembly elections in other neighbouring states, including Haryana.The political observers said that SAD has to redraw its poll strategy in Punjab as well. The impact of Congress victory in three states would have its impact on Lok Sabha elections. Sukhbir Badal has stated here that Akali Dal was there to rule at least for the next 25 years and it was not just a rhetoric. He would certainly need a introspection to achieve his goal.